What Will Happen Tomorrow ?
By Brig. (r) Junaid Zaman • Feb 17th, 2008 • Category: Pakistan Vote'08, Politics, Worth A Second Look • (1,161 views) • 8 CommentsGeneral (r) Pervez Musharraf’s Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) now can take bit of sigh of relief, as their founder and supervisor has said in an interview to Jemima Khan that PML-Q would take a land-slide victory in the Pakistan Election 2008, and with the help of Karachi-based Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), they would be able to form government in center, Punjab and Sindh.
Where this statement has stunned many, the audio tapes leaked by Human Rights Watch yesterday, in which allegedly Malik Qayyum, the attorney general of Pakistan revealed that he knew about the mass rigging plans of PML-Q has facilitated the rigging allegations made by opposition parties upon the government.
The major players in these elections are PPP, PML-N, PML-Q, JUI-F, ANP, and MQM.
The alliance between PML-Q and MQM is publicly declared and they have shared the government in the previous setup, and they intend to do it again and have got the full ‘Asheerbad’ of President Musharraf. MQM wants, as usual, the chief ministry of Sindh, and PML-Q would be happy with the chief ministry in Punjab and Prime Ministry in Islamabad. Though some circles are pointing that MQM also wants to share the Prime Ministry for the last half tenure.
The bondage between PPP and PML-N is loose, though they both have shown a rare display of solidarity. The initiative was taken by PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif when he went to Rawalpindi General Hospital after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and then went to the native village where Benazir is buried. They intend to form a coalition government and they have agreed upon giving chief ministry of Punjab to PML-N and Prime Ministry to PPP. There are still very much contentious issues between the two parties.
Pashtun nationalist organisation ANP’s situation in NWFP is getting stronger day by day, and like PPP it is also counting on the sympathy vote it garnered after the suicide attack on its public meeting in Charsadda. PML-N is also strong in this province. Where as in Balochistan there would be again a bizarre coalition government on need basis. In Sindh PPP would surely clean sweep.
On Monday morning, 64,000 polling stations will open in the country’s 272 constituencies, and PPP, the Benazir Bhutto’s Party after having tremendous sympathy vote would lead. Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N would be runner up. In Sindh, MQM in Karachi and PPP in other parts of Sindh will win. In Punjab, urban areas will be taken by PML-N and rural areas will be shared among PPP, PML-N and PML-Q. In NWFP ANP will be the leader, while PML-N is also expected to do will with JUI-F and PPP trailing behind. In Balochistan, independents along with JUI-F are expected to form a loose coalition government.
So its hard to tell who will be the next Prime Minister of Pakistan, but it’s easy to tell the results province by province. It’s easy to tell if the elections are free and fair, and if they are not, then there will be anarchy on wide scale level, which Pakistan cannot afford at any cost.
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Brig. (r) Junaid Zaman
Servicing the nation in new uniform.
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February 17th, 2008
very good analysis. But that is valid only if the elections are free and fair.
February 17th, 2008
In Balochistan due to law and order, I dont think there would by any elections.
February 17th, 2008
PML-Q would be wiped off the map of Pakistan, if and only if voters come out in throngs and choked the ballot boxes with their votes. Pakistan needs to get rid of this Q League.
February 17th, 2008
best , a nice short primer in election situation brig.
February 17th, 2008
|It’s easy to tell if the elections are free and fair, and if they are not, then there will be anarchy on wide scale level, which Pakistan cannot afford at any cost|.
Whatever the case may be, this analysis is indepth and offcourse near to reality. If i am not wrong and not bias the next PM may be from PML(N) with the support of PPP (based on the inputs the messages under cover).
February 17th, 2008
The president would be true to his words like always before and election would be free and fair. I think I remember how he fulfilled an old promise with his uniform dumped.
February 17th, 2008
As far as rigging is concerned… let me tell u that the other parties fighting for democracy have issued two cards per person to each voter, i myself have received two cards for my area, stating the camp, election details plus family # etc one with my new nic number and one with my old one.
Bottom line… they want me to vote twice for them tomorrow. So much for being anti establishment and anti rigging.
February 17th, 2008
What if the voters do something different this time, even if the elections are fair? THERE WILL BE RIGGING…that is all we think about….let’s show some positive attitude and start thinking from our own heads this time….INSHALLAH….as for the first time any Army chief has given up his Cap…let’s be positive…
Let’s hope no blood is shed
Let’s hope no more children wait for their fathers to come home
Let’s hope no wife waits for her husband
for they won’t return….
let’s hope that whatever happens
we remain united
Strength in Unity
peace