The Pakistani Spectator

Daily `Times’ published a report on September 4, 2009 about President Asif Ali Zardari’s  assurance to British Prime Minster Gordon Brown that Pakistani forces would carry out an operation against the Taliban in South Waziristan that would be  supported by the Britain, as the same Taliban group is posing serious threat to the UK as well. There were reports over the outbreak of hostilities between two splinter TTP groups, which resulted into the death of 18 militants after a fierce clash in Siliarogha area of South Waziristan. At the same time, the death of Baitullah Mahsud’s successor Hakimullah Mehsud also became the talk of the town. If these two significant developments are true, then TTP stands mired in critical leadership crisis and venue for military operation for a win-win situation is perhaps most opportune moments.

There are also reports the desperate TTP leadership tried to dispel this impression, these guerrilla fighters feigned that Hakimullah Mahsud is alive. To give credence to their statement TTP summoned his brother from Afghanistan who resembles his physiognomy. On the other hand Security Forces believe that Hakimullah has already been killed. According to another report about the clash between Waliur Rehman, another splinter group with Hakimullah’s fighters also remained in circulation. The British media termed these developments no less than a miracle, which will rid the country out from the vicious terrorism cycle. But the legacy of TTP’s suicide attacks has left many tragic lessons, not for Pakistan but for the world at large as well.

Although mystery still shrouds about the death of Hakimullah but next few weeks may prove crucial, if Pakistan army resumed its operation in the Waziristan to crush the TTP extremists and eliminate the foreign militants in the subject area. It is agonizing to imagine how government failed to eliminate the genie of terrorism despite announcing millions’ in reward, aerial bombing, and intelligence back-up despite unified political support of all the parties. Even such an announcement would provide them ample opportunities to disperse or sneak and slip away and spread their network throughout the country, to carry out same sabotage activity, to build up pressure against the government to willy-nilly abandon this idea.

Some political analysts apprehend likely fallouts of this operation, as new breed of leadership may prove himself as adept as their predecessor. They fear that chances of kidnapping incidents for ransom and bank robberies may increase. But it depends how strong his writ runs among various terrorist groups and how Pakistani government plans to harness or counter it. At the same time they may resort to trigger sectarian clashes by setting one group against the other to engage or divert the security forces on multiple fronts. If we suppose that Hakimullah’s is alive, then his outreach is expected to be seriously limited as regional commanders may cut loose and be on their own. There is yet another possibility that he may not be able to lay his hand, on the full multi-billion treasure trove, left behind by Baituallh, if cracks in the TTP continue unabated and tussle for inheritance goes on for its capture.

Once again, Pakistan army would certainly like to have a true picture of the ongoing development. It is pertinent to say that Tehrik Taliban of Pakistan (TTP) is one of the most ferocious organizations that exercised its nuisance value after the chain of suicide bombing such as assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Marriott bombing in Islamabad and suicide attack on Police Academy in Lahore. Besides, acts of violence Mehsuds waged a war of fear and dreadfulness, on vast swathes of the North-West populace, demanding payment from citizens for protection and solving minor and major disputes through Congo Courts. According to media reports, Baituallah Mehsud had dominance in three tribal agencies Orakzai, Kuram and Khyber and had 8000 warriors under his command. Its 42 member `Shura’ (parliament of locals) met in Orakzi, the stronghold of Hakimullah, indicating that he was able to establish himself as the powerful commander with an outreach and un-matched by no one else. After his death, if Hakimullah is alive, his real or perceived might depends on the treasure he inherits from the Baitullah Mehsud. Fortunately, Pakistan army and security agencies now stand in much better position as they have beefed up in number and have learnt many new lessons from the past bitter experiences. They now enjoy much superiority and will of taking Hakimullah on or at least prevent his mischief from escalating.

A brief article, such as this, cannot do credit to the twists and turns of Taliban movement which in all probability clearly indicate some hidden support by the Pakistani foes. But at the same time, struggle to clench the power by so many factions, breakaway groups, imposters, loyalists and intriguers have brewed a new mindset and perversion of faith masterminded by Baitullah Mehsud himself. Equally important would the role of their suspected handlers, organizers and supporters who provided them logistics and tons of money to carry on their terrorism spree during the last couple of years.

Before starting operation in the Waziristan and other FATA area, the readers who took a sigh of relief after the death of Baitullah Mahsud are also curious to know about his successor Hakimullah Mehsud’s potential to carry on such a terrorist activity, provided he is still alive, although such a possibility appears remote. According to TV clips, he too is a Pashtun of Mehsud tribe of NWFP, who appears to be more or less 27-28 years of age.  With a little formal education, outside Madrassah, he is quite agile, active, quick in decision making but lacked the maturity which his predecessor enjoy. He is violently sectarian and most savage of warriors with expertise in producing suicide bombers but he is not truly a chosen leader with the consensus of TTP or his tribesmen across the FATA and Malakand. It is also fact that differences among Taliban ranks over the appointment of new TTP exists. At the same time his tussle with Maulvi Fakir Muhammad, who declared himself to be the acting chief of Taliban after the death of Baitulllah Mehsud poses a serious challenge to his command. Keeping all these factors in mind, it is high time for the government to actively evolve a multi-pronged strategy to win over the public support through good governance, healing the bleeding wounds of the past, development of the area and by providing all possible financial support or employment to address the poverty dilemma that is one of the most ferocious weapons to radicalize any group. At the same time, reviving the culture of local Malik’s role in the society to wield their influence can also deliver fruitful results.

By Ibne Rehmat