The Pakistani Spectator

The best thing that could have happened after the general elections of February 2008 was the formation of multi-party governments at the centre and in the provinces with the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) as the senior partners at the federal level and in Punjab, giving their due share to minor / regional parties at the centre and in their respective strongholds.

This could have followed with replacement of General Pervez Musharraf with a consensus candidate of good reputation (preferably some retired judge) as the country’s President, restoration of pre-3 November 2007 PCO judiciary through a unanimous resolution of the Parliament, and repeal of the controversial provisions of the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution. Unfortunately this was not to happen.

Asif Ali Zardari, who assumed the leadership of the PPP, as Co-Chairman after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, was over-confident, too ambitious and, by nature, cunning and treacherous.

From the day one his eyes were fixed on the powerful presidency and, unlike his spouse, he was never sincere to the cause of judiciary, democracy or good-governance.

In his desire to out-smart friends and foes alike, he committed a series of blunders that not only further damaged his own reputation but proved injurious to the popular standing of the PPP. His ill-conceived acts included:

1. Backing out from the joint PPP- PML (N) Murree Declaration in which he had explicitly pledged to restore the pre-PCO judiciary within an agreed time-frame.

2. Virtually repudiating the Charter of Democracy signed by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

3. Creating impediments in the repeal of the XVII Amendment by linking it with adoption of a comprehensive constitutional package that was unlikely to get materialized.

4. Retracting from the assurance given to the PML (N) that the successor of Musharraf as President would be elected on the basis of consensus and, instead, getting his self elected as the President.

5. Nominating Salman Taseer as the Governor of Punjab and imposing governor’s rule in the province.

As if his hands were not full, he simultaneously, attempted to place Pakistan’s premier secret service, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), under civilian control and worked to get stringent conditions against the Pakistan Armed Forces included in the Kerry-Lugar Act while it was still on the anvil.

Probably he intended to use these conditions as an excuse to meddle in the affairs of the armed forces, including in the matters of promotion and strategic planning.

A number of Zardari’s acts backfired and now he is licking his wounds.

He had to withdraw the notification of placing the ISI under civilian control, lift the governor’s rule in Punjab after the resurgent judiciary sided with the majority party, restore the pre-PCO judiciary at the eleventh hour after a huge procession was on its way to Islamabad, obtain a face-saving Joint Statement from the US Congress on Kerry-Lugar Bill and give up the idea of getting the National Reconciliation Ordinance passed in the Parliament after the Muttahida Qoumi Movement made it clear that it would not support the much maligned legislation.

In a short span of fifteen months as President, Zardari has lost whatever little goodwill he had enjoyed at the time of assumption of power. Managed by an inner circle of notorious people, presently his government is perceived as the most corrupt government Pakistan has ever had.

He is known for intimidating the business classes and extorting money from them; and for favoritism and nepotism in appointing, promoting and transferring civil servants and government functionaries. His lust for amassing wealth has become proverbial and he is better known as “Mr. Ten Percent” in popular parlance.

Zardari is not in the good books of the military establishment or the judiciary. The people are anxious and craving to get rid of him. Sensing the mood in the country; and encouraged and facilitated by the hidden hands, the media is after him like a blood thirsty hounds, unveiling one scandal after another.

In moments of frustration and desperation, Zardari has appeared in Sindhi cap and hinted at using the “Sindh card”. During his video address to the PPP rally on 25 November, he even spoke of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s role in getting back POWs (which included nearly forty-five thousand military personnel) from India with honor and getting more than 5000 sq miles of Pakistani territory vacated from Indian occupation.

He asked in the same breath, “what you did to him?” and “what you did to his daughter?” It is not difficult to surmise whom did he mean by “you”.

Notwithstanding the show of anger, Zardari seems to have realized that even the US interest in sustaining him in the office is calculated.

A government corrupt to the core has no moral legitimacy to stay.

With every passing day Zardari’s stature, if any, is diminishing. No one wants to derail the democratic process but the situation is unendurable. The PML (N) is silent because it is averse to taking risk of military intervention.

Therefore, the focus is increasingly on the minus-one formula. A simple yet difficult to achieve solution: exit of Zardari.

Lately Zardari has taken some important steps to improve his approval rating. He appears to have concluded that he can survive only as a nominal head of the state in true parliamentary traditions. Responding to the sensitivities of the military establishment – for he is probably considered as a security risk – he has relinquished the Chairmanship of the National Command Authority, which is now to be headed by the Prime Minister.

It is an irony that the supreme commander of the Pakistan Armed Forces is no more qualified to sit in the most august defense body.

In a recent interview to a foreign TV, he has promised to get the Seventeenth Amendment repealed, including Article 58 (2) (b) of the Constitution, which empowers the President to dissolve the National Assembly if in his opinion the government of the federation is not being carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution.

There are indications that he is prepared to reshuffle the cabinet and sack some of the ministers who are tainted with corruption charges and have benefited from the NRO. He has appointed Justice (Retd) Bhagwandas as the Chairman, Federal Public Service Commission and is likely to remove or reshuffle some of the bureaucrats whose postings or transfers were extremely inappropriate and caused a furor.

In the very recent past, he reportedly offered the post of Attorney General or Governor Punjab to Aitzaz Ahsen in a bid to mend relations with the judiciary.

But the question is: can he be acceptable to the people and the establishment even as the nominal head of the state? In short term, may be “yes”, but in long term, an emphatic “no”.

Zardari’s reputation has got damaged beyond any chances of repair. A tainted person does not deserve to survive as a symbol of the unity of federation. Sooner he goes the better.

As far as the Constitution is concerned, there is no way to remove Zardari from presidency other than the process of impeachment which, while the PPP is in majority, seems unlikely.

There are, therefore, some other likely scenarios:

1. He is stripped of all meaningful authority, including Article 58 (2) (b) and the power to appoint the Chiefs of Army, Air Force and Navy and to send back advice of the cabinet or legislation of the Parliament for reconsideration, and then tolerated as President.

2. The Supreme Court declares the NRO unconstitutional and invalid from the day one. Resultantly, the candidature of Zardari as President becomes defective with retrospective effect and the office of the President falls vacant.

3. A strong and sustained media campaign against him and his close associates, and reopening of graft cases makes him weary or amenable to advice that he should leave the office and save his skin.

4. Opposition from within the PPP or its allies compels him to step down to save the system.

5. Having become a lame duck President and a big irritant and impediment for America’s Pakistan policy, the United States persuades him to resign as President.

6. The conditions develop, that lead to holding of fresh elections in which the PPP is routed and then a move for President’s impeachment is made.

7. He is “persuaded” by the military establishment to leave the office.

8. The situation comes to such an impasse that the army finds itself obliged to resort to some swift, surgical operation in national interest.

Zardari’s situation is precarious. He is on the precipice, out on a limb.

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