Pakistan: trapped in the US game plan
By Dr Shireen M Mazari • Nov 20th, 2009 • Category: Politics, Worth A Second Look • 11 CommentsThere is a dangerous pattern connecting the events happening in and around Pakistan today. Unless we can see this larger picture, we will be overwhelmed by the fallout and our detractors like the US will have fulfilled their agenda for this nuclear capable country. The roots of this US agenda go back to Musharraf’s hasty embrace of the US “war on terror”. What was not realised at the time was the psychological trauma the US had undergone as a result of 9/11, which had led to the bolstering of the already suspicion-tinted view the US had of the Muslim world. Of course, some pliant Muslim leaders were reluctantly embraced as “allies”, but always on a tight leash, but by and large nationalist Muslim leaders and their nations were something the Americans never felt comfortable with. If these nations were also militarily or economically strong, the US felt even more uncomfortable. In this context, Mahathir’s Malaysia, Revolutionary Iran and nuclear Pakistan certainly stood out as irritants in one way or another. So when 9/11 happened, even though it was Saudi citizens who were responsible for the actions, Pakistan was brought centre-stage and the US saw this as the opportunity to cut the country down to size and finally gain control of its nuclear assets.
That Musharraf proved excessively compliant from the beginning came as a shock even to the Bush Administration, but they realised his limitations in terms of compromises at the tactical level because of the military - which often put a spanner in the US agenda for Pakistan. Hence the constant critique of the Pakistan military and its intelligence outfits - especially once the CIA fell out with the ISI two years ago over whom to target in FATA!
So what is this US agenda that bodes ill for Pakistan? An article published in the US Army Journal entitled “Blood Borders” captured the broad outline a few years earlier. The main components that can now be identified are: One, to restructure Pakistan and its state institutions according to US wishes; two, to take control of its nuclear assets since they cannot really be “taken out”; and, three, to move it towards accepting Indian hegemony in the region and to distance it from its strategic partnership with China.
What has been the strategy for implementing this agenda? To create enough chaos and violence in Pakistan so as to be able to justify coming in and seizing control of the nuclear assets, restructuring a new state model for the country, which would include bringing it under Indian hegemony. How would this agenda be implemented?
First, through shifting the centre of gravity of the war in Afghanistan to Pakistan. This has finally been accomplished through a number of interesting tactics. The beginning was made by allowing the Al-Qaeda and Taliban to escape from Afghanistan during the Tora Bora bombings. Then the internal destabilisation of Pakistan began through drone attacks, which caused the traditionally highly patriotic tribal population of FATA to gradually turn against the state especially when the US pressured the army into moving into this area. Also, India was given a free run in Afghanistan so money and weapons for terrorists flowed in from Afghanistan into Balochistan and FATA as well as NWFP. In addition, a new entity emerged with its own violent agenda - the TTP with a huge stock of weapons that clearly had come from across the border since some of them were of US origin. Meanwhile, the US gradually increased its covert presence in Pakistan - beginning with Tarbela and the so-called “trainers” as well as the private US security concerns that have traditionally worked as mercenaries for the US government in places like Iraq. Balochistan also saw an increase in the US presence, especially as the US also sought to operationalise its covert operations against Iran through this province and the bases Musharraf had so generously handed over to the US. There was also the Bandari air base in an area 78 kilometres south of Kharan, near a place called Shimsi - not Shamsi base which is on the border with Iran near Dalbandin - from where the drones have been flying. This is the only airport that is not listed as being under CAA control.
All along, the US at the diplomatic and political levels was continuing with its “do more” mantra and undermining the credibility of the military in terms of its intent vis-à-vis fighting extremism and terrorism. The ISI especially was singled out for attack while the nuclear assets kept coming in for periodic targeting by the US media. As the US became more bogged down in Afghanistan, it sought to shift its failures on to Pakistan so that in the end many assume that it is this reason that has forced the US to shift the war to Pakistan. However, that may only be an offshoot of the larger original game plan to destabilise Pakistan from within by taking the war to the heart of the country - which is where the situation stands poised right now. The Musharraf-US alliance would have continued, but for the people of Pakistan’s desire for justice and freedom which spurred the judicial movement when Musharraf overplayed his hand. But once again the nation was short-changed because the US cleverly managed a new partner linked through the NRO. In Zardari they found an even more cooperative leader - and with democratic credentials to boot! If Musharraf had begun the granting of unfettered access to the US, the Zardari regime has taken it beyond all limits.
The second phase of the US implementation strategy has now begun to be operat-ionalised - that is, to destabilise Pakistan from within by increasing acts of terror carried out in Pakistani cities through well-trained and well-equipped groups centring on TTP - which finds no mention in the Kerry-Lugar Act. Alongside, the military has been tied down in military operations, first in Swat and now in SWA - which has its own fallouts in terms of terrorism and displacement of the population. It has also become necessary to isolate Pakistan from its neighbours and hence the extensive terrorist attacks on Iran’s security forces in Sistan province bordering Pakistan’s Balochistan, so that Iran-Pakistan relations are destroyed - Iran being the only friendly neighbour apart from China. The US covert presence in Pakistan has also now been put in place like a web - beginning from Sindh and Balochistan in the south and southwest, to Punjab to the Capital to Peshawar. There are now US armed covert operatives along with overt marines surrounding the Pakistanis and their nuclear assets. The Kerry-Lugar Act merely gives formal recognition to what has already happened in practice - submission to US diktat.
Only one last phase of the US agenda has to be operat-ionalised, but that will be the toughest. This is to push the country into a civil war-like situation by threatening to target Quetta and southern Punjab as well as Muridke. First there was pressure on the army to move into Swat; now it is SWA and the new mantra of moving the army into southern Punjab has already begun! Overstretch the military and create civil-military fissures so as to totally destabilise the country. When there is a state of total chaos, the US can pressure the UNSC into allowing it to takeover Pakistan’s nuclear assets - what will euphemistically be termed “under international control”. But the big problem now is that too many in the corridors of power in Pakistan are beginning to see the light while the people have also woken up to the lethal American agenda for Pakistan. Unless we can see the whole US game plan, and connect all the dots we will continue to fall prey to this destructive design.
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The writer is a defence analyst.
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Whether someone believe me or not as & when AZ & RM will be removed from their own respective portfolios this American Smart Aleck Game Over, bet with me.
Qudrat Kee Lathe Nahee Rukhtee Awaz-
American Maishat Ka Doob Raha - Jahaz-
[...] Pakistan: trapped in the US game plan | The Pakistani Spectator [...]
i think somebody has got an american paranoia !
DR Mazari writes
[Hence the constant critique of the Pakistan military and its intelligence outfits - especially once the CIA fell out with the ISI two years ago …]
Irony is that after this break up some of the forces in Pakistan like JUI, Fazulur, JI and even Tehrik e Insaf were the fist who were seen welcoming— this ‘CIA-ISI’ divorce and knowing it to be such that CIA were to raise a covert force like TTP to work against Pakistan——rather they opted to become CIA’s tools.
CIA came up with cash to tossed the pockets of all the enablers—– and that today we find TTP turned into monster.
TTP may be called a force raised by our enemy to topple us down—–but the visionless lot like JUI, Fazlu, JI and to some extent Tahrik Insaf—– are the real traitors and culprit that for the paltry and polity gains they became the tools and enablers to have this—— all happened and TTP becoming a monster.
Prior to commencement of Operation Rahe RAST in Swatt Malakand area when ever Musharraf wanted to send army to quell TTP…; JUI especially Fazlur in his religious garb was seen playing with time gaining tactics——-He always came with some sort of solutions like holding of various Jirgas and agreement let allowed TTP to grow. It gained this evil the required time and the TTP menace kept on breeding and now we find that it is turned into ——-monster.
Public was kept thoroughly alluded and in dark; resultant Pak army could not get gather the required public backing to launch any full fledge operation. Any how the operation in Swat –Malakand marked some successes and in second phase it is now moving in South Waziristan which happens to be the major den of monster.
But this TTP menace is so wide spread in our society that the only viable and patriot forces—— our Armed forces will be too spread out and will remain entangled in these operations to quell our social evils for a long time to come —–that they are not basically meant to do all this.
But for how long—- we will be asking our Military to keep on laying their lives to make our tomorrows safe———- when this nation itself does not rise iitself and want to secure it’s future at its own.
Ab tou es Teer-gee main bughnay Lagee hey hayaat
In our love land—-when people found plundering and robbing are known as politician and the leaders; like PPP, PML-N and ANP.
* The forces boasting to be the patriots are seen fell prey to the foreign web of deceit (CIA_Mossad-RAW) and find themselves rather working for them as enablers; JUI, Fazlur and Tehrik e Insaf.
* When we have brothers in the western enclave found busy working as traitors of this land and had adopted this act it as their source of earning their living like our some Pushtoun brothers.
* When our Baluchi brothers love to sit in our enemy lap for perks.
* When it only potent force Armed forces that in love of this country they keep on jumping in to act as the saviors of this nation—- rather they leaves this nation more crippled on their way out and are the reason to alludes the entire vision of the nation.
* Where the public prefers to remain detached, alluded and in the dark.
Well ——it is the Time——that some ‘Bloody Messiah’ to come to save us from the pits of darkness and pull us out to put us—-on the path of Righteous.
Please read the second bullet poit as:
* When we have some brothers Pashtoun in our western enclave—-found busy working as traitors that they are seen having this act adopted as their only source of earning for their livelihood.
Prof mazhari,
You must be joking by the word”"” Pakistan under Indian hegomony”". do you think Americans are such fools?
Your analyis falls because you forget to mention 9/11 which started it all. Your nation was RULING THROUGH TALIBAN THE ANCIENT KINGDOM OF AFGHANISTAN WHOSE POPULATION HAVE BEEN TRADITIONALLY FRIENDLY TO INDIA AND practised a type of TOLERANT SUFI ISLAM WHICH UNITED PAKTHUNS,HAZARAS,UZBEKS ETC.
But your nation fell for SAUDI ARABIAN AND UAE DOLLARS AND MONEY POWER and wanted to live a life of Medevilaism. Result is 9/11. Even after that takeover of Kabul by northern alliance, Bush allowed Musharaff to evacuate the ISI operatives still trapped in Kunduz.( mUSHARAFF WAS GIVEN CHANCE before bombing and he lied to Americans that there are no ISI in Afghanistan.) But still Bush allowed black helicopter evacuation.
Again Bush left for Iraqi oil, a trap set by Saudies. Basically your nation is paying the price for Saudi Arabia’s obsession with Iran which even offerrred its bases for a secret attack on Iran.Ofcourse Musharaff with ISI and Cheney were using Jundoallah to trouble Iran.Even today India/Iran-Pakistan pipeline would have cemented a relationship of trust and security but SAUDIES AGAIN THROUGH TEXAN OIL LOBBY SABOTAGED IT. Zardari tried to resurrect it but India’s Mani shankar iyer was booted out.
Your nation by its sheer size require nuclear arms as an insurance against bigger India. But you have to say we will sign NPT as long as India is defanged. Ofcourse the strategic scenario is unfolding with China being given the stick to beat Pakistan into signing NPT. Stand up as an independent nation instead of crying about Indian nukes. Both are necessary for peace in subcontinent.
The media should be careful on how and who they report. The recent remarks about Mathew Rosenberg of Wall Street Journal to be working for Blackwater undercover could lead to another incident to that of Daniel Peal which everyone knows was not a good ending and very sad from Pakistan’s point of view also.
Lets say they take control of Nuclear assets> Whats the goal of USA ? USA can not put Pakistan under India. Do you think People will let that happen?
We do need good governance at all levels of Govt and if USA is trying to help achieve that, whats wrong in it. We need to break these big provinces in to small administrative units where law enforcing agencies can have control on them.
Quit bashing USA , look into your own country and find the Tritors with in the country.
Johann,
[Pakistan under Indian Hegemony….!]
As a Christian you must not be knowing the true facts but I think Dr Mazari must be saying about the Indian wild dreams— The dreams to see their neighbouring countries as mere rundown identities (as per Chankia mythology) and Pakistan being at the top of their devilish agenda.
About the wild dream —no one may ask others whether to have or not to have wild dreams but they say that wild dreams are the out come of ones vulturous thinking and the covetous greedy designs.
If India does not have those vulturous designs then there is nothing like it; we as neighbour can go hand in hand…! But then why every time there is some investigative occasion; we always smell Indian fish rotting in there?
You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, I?ve spent most of my time here just lurking and reading, but today for some reason I just felt compelled to say this.