The Pakistani Spectator

Eighth Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference  was an interesting event. Distinct feature of this conference was a year long concerted preparatory campaign lead by President Obama. Significant events of this marathon drive were: articulation of Prague Agenda in April 2009, passage of unanimous UNSC Resolution 1887 on Prague Agenda, in September 2009, signing of ‘Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty’ with Russia, American ‘Nuclear Posture Review’, holding of ‘Nuclear Security Summit’, etc.

Every review conference evaluates operation and compliance of NPT provisions. Delegates from the 189 nations belonging to the treaty discussed its compliance based on its three pillars - nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

Review conference was able to hammer out a consensus document. However, contents wise it embodies numerous contradictions. Initiative in the context of non-proliferation has, since long, passed on to neo-nuclear weapon states and non nuclear weapon states. Unfortunately, the NWS members are still fixated to the realities of yester years.

Instruments to achieve non-proliferation have been grounded in the mythical concept of making the non-weapon states believe that nuclear weapons are safe in the hands of only five NWS, and for others, these are self annihilating toys.

Despite glaring realities of emergence of neo-nuclear weapon states, treaty managers are bent upon following an Ostrich like approach and continue to treat these states as NNWS. One wonders how keeping these states out of NPT accountability could ensure effective non-proliferation. Though issuance of consensus document has given the treaty a facade of boost, it continues to survive on life support systems.

NPT signatories had extended its life indefinitely in 1995; since then treaty is not under the danger of implosion. Nevertheless, it is haunted by various structural dysfunctions and hence has not been able to achieve much.

Underlying bargaining cornerstones which prompted the extension of treaty are giving way. The bargain hinged on three pillars viz the nuclear weapon states would disarm and share their technology for peaceful purposes; and in return, the non nuclear weapon states would not try to acquire nuclear weapons. Since fifteen years, these utopian promises by the nuclear haves had the have-nots chase a wild goose.

Basic role of the treaty is to inhibit the multiplication of nuclear weapons. It has neither prevented horizontal nor vertical proliferation of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapon states continue to give pre-eminence to their nuclear capabilities in their national security calculus and have been engaged in continuous up-gradation of their arsenals.

NWS are yet to comply with their obligations under Article VI of the treaty towards disarmament. At best all they have done so far is cosmetic actions of making some weapons non-operational and placing them in semi-storage status; from where these could be brought to operational status, on as required basis.

Another pillar of the treaty states that the non-nuclear states would have the inalienable right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy. However, nuclear weapon states have all along been selective in allowing access to know how and expertise pertaining civil application of nuclear technology.

It is amazing to see how floodgates of nuclear facilitation have been opened for India, a non signatory to NPT, and at the same time how Iran, a member of NPT, is being denied access to peaceful levels of fuel cycle. Likewise, NWS are shy of giving unrestricted access of nuclear energy know how to Pakistan, even under IAEA safeguards.

Middle Eastern countries backed indefinite extension of NPT, during 1995 review conference, in exchange for a resolution for making the Middle East a WMD free zone. Even after the lapse of 15 years, no practical steps have been taken in this regards.

Non-Nuclear Weapon States had been yearning to accrue negative security assurances from the nuclear weapon states. Recent initiatives by the US during its Nuclear Posture Review and by its signing of protocols to some of the nuclear weapon free zones’ agreements are steps in the right direction, other NWS should follow the suit, but without making exceptions.

From Pakistan’s perspective, the NPT is a flawed treaty. In the past Pakistan has faced pressures to join the treaty as a NNWS. Such an expectation is not tenable. It would have been in the fitness of things to absorbs all states into NPT, on the basis of their present status and then proceed towards an equity based non-proliferation, nuclear security, safety and disarmament campaigns.

Likewise, IAEA has to go a long way to wash off its image that it earned by making country specific exceptions to kick start US-India nuclear deal (Agreement 123); whereby eight Indian reactors have been left out of IAEA safeguards for churning out weapon grade fissile material.

Non-proliferation needs a wholesome approach. Disciplines like threat perception, resolution of regional conflicts, small arms control, regional power dynamics, prevention of numerical and technological preponderance, and mechanism for comprehensive and irrevocable negative assurances for all NNWS are some of the factors which directly determine the direction of non-proliferation, or say proliferation.

The good part is that despite serious differences of opinion, the final document was evolved through consensus.  For this, credit goes to the prudent statesmanship of Iran. Despite provocations to the contrary, Iran chose the right option—strengthening the cause of nonproliferation.

The point of concern is that this document is likely to raise more issues than it could solve. Turning Middle East into a WMDFZ appears to be a non starter. NWS have once again been found wanting in their resolve to destroy their nuclear weapons. Even a NAM sponsored time line of 2025 has not been accepted.

Final document could not have been farther from reality when it urged the three defacto nuclear weapon capable states, Israel, Pakistan and India, to join NPT as NNWS.

If global zero is to be achieved, world has to take an approach of Nuclear Weapons Convention on the pattern of Chemical Weapons and Biological Weapons Conventions. At best current non-proliferation regimes are like a fabric woven around holes.