The Pakistani Spectator

The Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Manmohan Singh, on his visit to Saudi Arabia made the surprise offer of dialogue to Pakistan on all issues ranging from Kashmir, Indus Water Treaty to Terrorism. This Indian pronouncement within days after scuttling the Secretary-level talks in Delhi is really baffling. Both India and Pakistan entered the Delhi talks under immense US pressure. Indian insistence on a single point agenda of ‘Terrorism’ made failure of talks the only possible result. Pakistan apparently entered the talks in the hope that, irrespective of the outcome of the secretary level talks, these parleys could lead to the opening of the institutionalized Composite Dialogue process which India suspended after Mumbai attacks. That didn’t happen, the talks were failure to the extent that even the way forward was not crystallized.

It appears that the US was unhappy with the failure of talks owing to Indian intransigence and pressurized India to make amends. Mr. Manmohan Singh’s talks offer and turnaround is the apparent outcome. The US keenness to ease tensions between Pakistan and India are related to its exit strategy in Afghanistan. In December, the global powers endorsed the London Plan envisaging intra-Afghan dialogue to seek reconciliation between the Afghan Government and Taliban. This process is expected to stabilize Afghanistan, thus clearing the way for exit of US and NATO Forces. The Afghan reconciliation process presupposes a major Pakistani mediatory and military role. The US wants Pakistan fully on board the Afghan dialogue process and support the US exit plan. By pressuring India to resume dialogue with Pakistan, the US desires easing of Indo-Pak tension to reassure Pakistan so that it can focus on fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda on its western border with Afghanistan by relocating its forces from eastern border with India to the Afghan border. The US and the Western powers wish to also see India playing a major role in the Afghan reconciliation process.

The US effort to draw India to cool tensions with Pakistan and assume an eminent role in the Afghan reconciliation process is based on naivety. Unstable and chaotic Afghanistan fits into Indian designs vis a vis Pakistan and is in sync with its national interest. A pro-Indian Afghan Government hostile to Pakistan seated in Kabul, Afghan and Pakistani Taliban with Indian support creating anarchy on the Pak-Afghan border and elsewhere in Pakistan and Indian backed Baluch separatists pursuing their own armed agenda is a dream scenario for the Indian strategic planners. This scenario hurts Pakistan; it not only weakens our economy, caps development, creates a serious image problem but also embroils sizeable Pakistani military assets on internal security. Indian Army Chief, Gen Kapoor’s brag of fighting a two-front war with China and Pakistan has its roots in this Indian design of weakening Pakistan’s defence internally by backing the Pakistani Taliban, Baluch separatists and other terrorist groups.

India aims at diluting and dispersing Pakistani military strength on counter terrorism and counter insurgency operations. With Pakistan thus weakened, bulks of Indian forces get freed from Indo-Pak border which could be employed against China. Irrespective of US desire and our own need to establish the writ of the government in deviant areas of FATA, Pakistan cannot afford to lower its guards against India and shift bulk of its forces to the Afghan border. Pakistan Army Chief, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has clearly stated that Pakistan and its army are India centric due to unresolved issues between New Delhi and Islamabad and the history of conflict. To Pakistan, Indian Army’s recently unveiled “cold start doctrine”, is a “very offensive” military strategy. Propagation of such strategy obviously cannot contribute to growth of bilateral relations and mutual trust. The COAS also expressed his concern on growing Indian military presence in Afghanistan under the garb of training for Afghan Security Forces. Pakistan and India have substantive issues plaguing mutual relationship ranging from the core issue of Kashmir to Indian support to Baluch separatists and Indian violation of the Indus Water Treaty where it is stealing Pakistan’s share of water, etc.

Indian insistence on talking to Pakistan only on the issue of terrorism is designed to avoid international focus on all other issues which have primarily been created by India. Its pre-conference propaganda theme of demonizing Pakistan as a terrorist sanctuary from where terror activities in India are being initiated adequately displayed its negative mindset while approaching the Secretary level talks. Terrorism is a global phenomena, it won’t go away through name calling and point scoring between states. Counter terrorism needs an international understanding and strategy where states act responsibly sharing information, data and experiences. The secretary level talks failed because India never wanted them to succeed. It made a point on the US that, while India could accept pressure to open a dialogue with Pakistan, the US cannot expect the desired results unless they suited Indian plans. Indian yearning to bleed and weaken Pakistan is much stronger than the will to settle outstanding issues with Pakistan. It is in Indian security interest to keep Afghanistan burning and therefore forecloses the possibility of India contributing to Afghan stabilization.

The US and NATO would soon realize that India is undermining its efforts to bring peace to Afghanistan. If the US and its allies wish an early exit after stabilization of Afghanistan, India must be marginalized. The US effort to initiate sham talks between Pakistan and India should be directed at discouraging Indian presence in Afghanistan. Alternatively, the US is doomed to stay in Afghanistan for a prolonged period.