The Pakistani Spectator

There is a consensus among political experts that the world’s future wars will be fought over water, not oil. Experts say it would be the era in which rivers, lakes and aquifers become national security assets to be fought over, or controlled through surrogate armies and client states. Surprisingly, where the whole world is fortunately lagging a bit behind for entering into this ill-fated era of ‘hydrological warfare’, the Asian region has surpassed the rest of the world due to Indian expansionist agenda.

It is a hard fact that water wars remain no more a part of science fiction movies they are happening now. Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh are already a victim of Indian water thievery. India has plans to construct 62 dams/hydro-electric units on rivers Chenab and Jhelum thus enabling it to render these rivers dry by 2014. The hydroelectric plants both built or are under construction will enable India to block entire water of Chenab for 20-25 days. India has also started construction of three dams Nimoo Bazgo, Dumkhar and Chutak on river Indus, which will have devastating impact on Pakistan’s northern areas. Chutak is under construction on River Suru. In case of any of these dams collapse or large quantity of water is deliberately released, it will endanger Bhasha dam but also submerge Skardu city and airport. Karakorum Highway (KKH) between Besham and Jaglot would also wash away. India has also persuaded Afghanistan to create a water reservoir on the River Kabul, another tributary of river Indus.

Moreover, India has dispute with Bangladesh over Farraka Barrage, with Nepal over Mahakali River and with Pakistan over 1960 Indus water treaty. Without any qualms, India is busy building dams on all rivers flowing into Pakistan from occupied Kashmir to regain control of western rivers in violation of Indus treaty. This is being deliberately done under a well thought out strategy to render Pakistan’s link-canal system redundant, destroy agriculture of Pakistan which is its mainstay thus turning it into a desert.

Unfortunately, after using the water of Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Nepali rivers India is escalating its water terrorism to Iran as well. India is building Salma dam on Hari Rud river basin in northwest in Afghanistan, which flows into Iran and forms Sistan delta. Originally Salma Dam was constructed in 1976 while in 2004 Water and Power Consultancy Service (India) Ltd (WAPCOS) began reconstruction of Salma Dam power project in 2004. The completion of the project has been unnecessarily delayed and it is now expected to be commissioned by 2011 instead of 2009.

Salma Dam Power project is India’s largest project in Afghanistan with a total estimated cost of USD 116 million. This mega project aimed at generating 42MW of power and involves erection of 110 KV power transmission lines to Herat city conspires to restrict flow of water to Iran. By doing so, India will not only restrict river Hari Rud’s flow of water to Iran but also barren the Sistan inland delta inhibiting some 400,000 people whose economy strongly depends on agriculture and the goods and services provided by the wetlands.

The Sistan delta in Iran is located at the end of a closed basin. The entire contributing basin is about 200,000 km and is largely located in Afghanistan. The river system discharges into an inland depression which, when sufficient water is available, forms the Hamoun lakes. These lakes are fresh and one of the main and most valuable aquatic ecosystems in Iran and are registered wetlands in the Ramsar and the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve conventions. The inflowing rivers from Afghanistan support the irrigated agriculture in the Sistan delta but are also the source for the lake system around the delta. And blocking the flow of Afghan River’s water into Iran will mean less water for the hamouns with resulting lower average water coverage of the lakes. Ultimately, this will not only endanger the ecosystem that the hamouns support but also the lively hoods of its people that depend on the goods and services that the lake provides.

The Water Research Institute of Iran, in cooperation with ITC and Alterra from the Netherlands carried out a study with an extensive analysis of all existing information on the river basin including the natural resource system and its infrastructure, in Iran as well as in Afghanistan. Analyses showed that the hamouns lakes are under serious risk of loosing their ecological value and potential developments will decrease the inflow to the lakes with more than 50%. The government of Iran has stated their concerns to the Afghan authorities urging them to resolve water sharing issue between the two countries before the construction of Salma Dam but to no avail. It is because of Afghan authorities but due to Indian interest in building Dam on Hari Rud. Isn’t it intriguing as to what interests India might have in constructing Salma dam? Well, India has deep interests in any such activity whether economic, political, geographical, religious or cultural which can help consolidate its hegemonic ambitions.

Indian interests lie in good will of Afghan masses is mere an eyewash. Indian keenness to reconstruct Salma dam is aimed at encouraging Afghan masses to agitate against the Iranian interference in the construction of Salma dam in order to create rift between Afghanistan and Iran at one hand and to appease USA by depriving Iran of appropriate flow of water thus harming agricultural economy on the other hand. India by and large has no interest in developing Afghanistan besides keeping it under thumb. Paradoxically, Indian pledged huge aid package to Afghanistan has neither been dispensed nor any mega development project for Afghanistan had commenced in time.  Instead, in last 7 years India remain more committed in buying time for India-owned projects in Afghanistan on one or the other pretext and increasing number of RAW agents in the garb of security personnel, workers, doctors, engineers etc.

Factually, India needs the Afghanistan link for many reasons i.e. to maintain its links with the Central Asian states, to carry out subversive activities against Pakistan - considered its enemy No 1 and to appease US and western allies. During Taliban rule, India faced difficulties in maintaining its influence in the Central Asian region, which is not only energy rich but its large consumer market is of geo-strategic importance to India. According to an Indian analyst, Meena Singh Roy,“India as an extended neighbour of CARs, has major geo-strategic and economic interests in this region”.  That is why India is investing heavily in building road s and infrastructure linking Afghanistan with the Central Asian states. Apart from Salma dam project, Indian oil companies are active in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Moreover, in March 2007, after completing the refurbishment of a military base at Ayni, India became fourth country, apart from Russia, US and Germany to have a base in Central Asia. The base is of strategic importance to India. An Indian analyst Sudha Ramachandran observed that. “ A base at Ayni allows India rapid response to any emerging threat from the volatile Afghanistan-Pakistan arc … It also gives New Delhi a limited but significant capability to inject special forces into hostile theaters as and when the situation demands … in the event of military confrontation with Pakistan, India would be able to strike Pakistan’s rear from Tajik soil… Ayni has to do with India’s growing interests in Central Asia as well”.

Salma Dam like projects is manifestation of India’s dual regional policy according to which neighbours are regarded as enemies and an enemy’s immediate neighbour as a friend. Also all such dams are a clear violation of the rights of lower riparian according to international law. Yet, USA is looking up to India as central player in resolving Afghanistan problem. But what can one possibly expect from a country which stoops to lowest level of immorality by stealing water and blocking rivers to turn agricultural lands barren?? If US really wants peace and stability in the region then it should restrict India from making war-ravaged Afghanistan a chessboard to pursue her own agenda. Better it would be for India to refrain from playing foul games, testing the patience of Afghans and victimizing other regional neighbours through its water terrorism before it is too late. On the other hand, it would be better for Afghan authorities too, that despite playing in the hands of Indian and relying on the alien clutches’, they better should struggle themselves to stand on their own feet and realize the Indian conspiracy before time runs out.