Barack Obama delivers a speech of a Flawed Plan
By A Khokar • Dec 5th, 2009 • Category: Politics • 11 CommentsThe US President has given us a strong military plan, but where was the political strategy — and usual confidence which symbolizes a US President; says right minded Paddy Ashdown-Bosnia fame International Community’s High representative.
The Taliban’s favourite phrase in recent months has been: “The elephant is down, now all we have to do is— slay it.”
The best thing about this week’s Obama speech was that Taliban they now know the elephant is not down; it is engaging the fight with renewed strength, determination and vigour. The Taliban may be under pressure but is this enough for success in the war of Afghanistan; however limited the success may be? The answer is no.
The Obama speech gave us, in short, a military plan — but not yet a political one.
When General Stanley McChrystal sent his proposal to the President, it included a carefully integrated plan for both the military (broadly, an extra 30,000 troops and a focus on protecting the people, not chasing the enemy) and the political aspect. The speech contained the first but was almost silent on the second. Perhaps this is still to come. But if it is not, then what we have heard so far will not be enough.
What the President intended was for audiences in the US and Afghanistan as well as in Pakistan to hear different things. His message to the domestic audience was supposed to be “troops home in 18 months” and to the Taliban, “30,000 extra troops”. But unfortunately the wrong people got the wrong message. What the US heard was “30,000 more troops” while what the Taliban heard was “in 18 months, they’ll be gone”.
The Taliban commander Mullah Omar once famously said: “They may have the watches, but we have the time.” I fear we may have inadvertently given volume to that message. I understand the temptation of timelines and exit strategies for those who have to win back home a domestic support. But Obama has told the Taliban that how long they have to wait before US forces give up.
It is far better to deal with these things through milestones rather than timelines. For instance US could set milestones for the growth and professionalization of the Afghan Army and police, set target times for them to be delivered and, as they are, hand over the functions to Afghan structures and pull out.
A mission implementation plan for Afghanistan, capable of being debated back home and providing a visible road map of progress for Afghans as well, is a better way to gain public support than the artificial deadlines that, in the case of July 2011, looks as almost undeliverable.
It is not difficult to see why the President felt that he needed, for domestic purposes, to say that withdrawal would start in July 2011. But this does not make it right.
Other elements of the strategy were also either missing or too lightly glossed over.
First and foremost, there was nothing about the absolute necessity to ensure that, at last and after six damaging years of muddle, the tower of Babel that is the international community in Afghanistan will now work to a single plan, act on a single set of priorities and speak with a single voice. It is the absence of this, more than anything else that has caused the failures and cost so many lives. The only person whose authority is powerful enough to bash international heads together and make this happen is the US President. Yet there was nothing of this in his speech.
Second, what political element there was in the President’s speech seemed to rely still on the belief that President Karzai is reformable and will reform. Some might think this a triumph of hope over experience. Of course Afghanistan’s newly elected President can not be changed that there is no option—– but to support him. But that does not mean that all the eggs be piled up into this rather rickety basket.
One of the impediments to success in Afghanistan is that US have been trying to force a Western-style centralized constitution on to a country whose traditions have been tribal and local for 1,000 years. This is a golden opportunity to begin to shift the weight of effort away from strengthening Kabul, to building up governance from the bottom. This would at once give a political strategy that runs with, rather than against, the grain of Afghan society, while creating the best context for a serious programme of reconciliation with the tribally based Taliban.
Taliban reconciliation was mentioned in the President’s speech — but only with a single, almost off-hand, remark. Yet this was a main plank of the McChrystal strategy which needs to be made clear here. Taliban reconciliation is not an easy option to hard fighting. It may always be possible to split the oddly low-level Taliban commander away with a bag of gold or the promise of a job. But serious negotiation with a Taliban prepared to put aside the gun in favour of pursuing constitutional means will never come while they think — with justification — that they are winning on the battlefield.
Every body hoped to see, in the long awaited Obama‘s speech a clear statement of a wider regional strategy that would include not just Pakistan but also Iran, India, and maybe even Russia and China. Without this the success will certainly be much more difficult.
On the other hand, on the arrival of US troops in Afghanistan, other than about 10000 that they will be deployed in Helmed which has become a secured strong hold of US forces likr Green Zone in Baghdad-Iraq; about 5000 of them will be sent to the adjacent province of Kandahar to be deployed along Pakistan border which means that Pakistan will feel all the heat on this new war escalation on this front.
There has been lot of anarchy and devastation that US with it subversive activities through its agents Tehrik e Taliban in Pakistan; since it is raised and supported by US that these stooges have brought so much of devastation in Pakistan in the Khyber Pass enclave in the north. They are very much threatening the very heartland and capital of Islamabad. The new escalation of US forces deployment in south along second major Pakistan’s Bolan Pass on Hindu Kush ranges may leave the south western enclave of Baluchistan most vulnerable for exploitataion, where the situation is already tense and life is seen in peril at the hands of separatist.
President Obama has formidable gifts of oratory and he deploys them very confidently but the old Obama so famously comfortable in his own skin; seemed distinctly uncomfortable while posing as a war escalating leader. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, too, looked especially miserable talking of conflict and seen simply seconding Obama’s new verdict in his recent communiqués and alleging Pakistan for harbouring Al Qaeda fugitives.
But one thing is evident that there is devil trying to click the war map to enlarge open in New Window and trying his best to stay put in this area for a long time to come.
Theme source; Adab arz.co.uk
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Khokar
it is surprise that you can see flaws in obama ’speech which directly apply on our area.It is being going on for many years that US president says there and our COAS acts here without giving second thought of it and people like you are here for all time support of army actions on our soil.
If you have deputed to that area you know very well the history and culture of our tribes and tribal men that they are sold commodity all the time .You can purchase any kind of help from these by bribing them and this theme was successfully lunched while favoring talibanisation in the region.
Now with the support of generals like naseer ullah babar and hammed gul this tree with deep rooted and powerful trunk has been scattered all over the area so you people are shouting to cut it without seeing that where it would fall it would destroy all who are use to of living under the shade of tree.
This is conceptual and spiritual conflict and many foreign hands are now getting benefits while our army men are desperately busy in obeying the orders of eradication of this concept .
Concepts are not deleted through force but with counter conceptual tactics and it would require proper timing, good leadership and fair long term planning.
I hope you know after seeing our pathetic conditions and surge of more US troops in our northern border India has now been reducing its force from Kashmir border.Political govt know very well that militarism is a big hurdle in human development and they are trying to avoid it but our case is opposite to all.
But who would tell this to our good military heads as they are looking for short term victories to get favor form US authorities in their regimes.
Obama’s War Strategy Has Echoes Of Bush
Nazia,
Pakistan is no more under any Military rule.
Our military is presently engaged in troubled areas and carrying out operation with the aim to soften up and clear the grounds so that political phase may take a start..
Military is always engaged on the short term bases——and they get on one side when the ores are seen —–back in order.
We do see that with the grace and blessings of Almighty our Armed forces are busy completing their assigned tasks successfully.—— Now political leaders ought to come up—-and take charge to deliver.
First and foremost will be that this wishy-washy—– nonsense of keeping FATA as federal administered area be finished with and——- entire border area be brought into fold of mainstream Pakistan.
@3
Where is the grace and blessing in all scenes of tragedy.
We are feeling more helpless and insecure after each attack on our settled areas.
Please come out of our day dreaming , even see that your this comment is not matching with your above ideas in the topic
So in this confused state, nobody is seeing any good change in coming days.
The induction of more troops is clear sign of carrying on of this dirty war on us. nothing to be feel good for future of Pakistan as after keeping FATA in mainstream of war our soldiers would start operation in Baluchistan in coming days.
Her Shakh peh Uloo Brthaa hey; Anjam e gulistaan key ho ga….?
This nation has a habit to run away from the responsibilities and leave everything to military to ——-fight our fires.
And we have got this scapegoat —– to throw any blame on them whatever comes to anu boy’s mind.
# 5.
it is——- any body’s mind
Let me correct #5 above and it is here.
Her Shakh peh Uloo Bethaa hey; Anjam e gulistaan keya ho ga….
This nation has a habit to run away from the responsibilities and then leave everything to military—-to fight our fires.
And we have got this scapegoat —– to throw any blame on them whatever comes to any body’ mind.
Nation is here suffering for all and facing the severe heat of fire.
Kindly see who is running away of accountability .
Who is transferring his assets to other countries.
Who is reluctant to come back to his home where he ruled like paper lion and flew away like vulture for eating his share of money he earned through dead bodies of Pakistani people and selling our people to his masters.
Since I listened Obama Speech thereafter analyzing of the same by Tariq Fatmi & Ms. Maleha Lodhi who have been confirming that Army won’t allow to American but for me the most important objective what is the clear cut position of Pakistan Army on this vital issue of further expansion American Droned Attacks which is being expanded now Quetta & Karachi also.
*Sehar = Enchantment
Aaiy Ga Wooh Bhee Waqt Jab Israel Kay *Sehar Say Maghrib Kee Jaan Chotay Gee-
Jhoot-o-Such Aur Hay Kiya INSAF Kee Tareef-Isskee Samjh Inko Bhee Phir Aaiy Gee-
Nazia,
Read in between the lines and you will find that with the new surge of troops in Afghanistan; President Obama is dreaming a dream of ‘Victory scenario which he see in making’— for US in this area.
It can be well visualized that Baluchistan seems to be the next battle ground where this victory that US is so desperately gasping for will be met.
On the arrival of US fresh troops in Afghanistan, other than about 10000 that they will be deployed in Helmed which has become a secured strong hold of US forces like the famous Green Zone in Baghdad-Iraq; about 5000 of them will be sent to the adjacent province of Kandahar and are to be deployed along Pakistan border which means that Pakistan will feel all the heats of this new war escalation on this front.
This has already been declared that Al Qaeda has since shifted from Afghanistan or its sanctuaries in Waziristan and allegedly they are now operating from Baluchistan with its rear Head quarters in Karachi.
The projected peace deal with Afghani Taliban in the spring time and granting them the due share of government is likely to mark a turning point in Al Qaeda Issue in Afghanistan.
The large scale anarchy and devastation being carried out through out Pakistan through subversive activities of CIA and its agents like TTP is an effort to soften up the grounds for the US led NATO forces to escalate war for which Baluchistan is all in ready position; where the situation is already made tense and life is said to be in peril at the hands of Baluchi separatists.
This is a real dream of Obama which is about to come to pass that man envisages bringing about a Victory for US for which Obama has been awarded—-Peace Nobel Prize—- in advance.
(this in vesture ceremony is taking place some times today)
i believe that Barack Obama is the president that the US needs in these hard times. I do not like the local and foreign policy of any Rebublican.